The introduction of VAR (Video Assistant Referee) into the EFL Cup semi-finals is set to revolutionise the experience for teams and spectators alike, marking a significant shift in how decisions are communicated during matches. For the first time in England, VAR calls will be broadcast via the stadium’s public address system during the upcoming clashes, starting with the semi-finals featuring Arsenal versus Newcastle, and Liverpool against Tottenham.
This pioneering move aims to enhance transparency and add a new layer of drama to the matches, likely impacting the dynamics significantly. The presence of VAR has historically benefitted some teams while proving detrimental to others, as seen in previous matches without it. Notably, Arsenal benefitted from a contentious goal against Crystal Palace in the quarter-finals due to the lack of VAR, which could have otherwise flagged an offside.
The past instances where VAR’s absence was highlighted include Jürgen Klopp’s criticism following Liverpool’s 3-2 defeat to Manchester City in a previous season’s Carabao Cup tie, where several key decisions went against Liverpool.
The strategic implications of VAR are extensive, particularly in how they might influence betting patterns and odds calculations. Typically, EFL Cup games are high-scoring affairs, with an average of 3.45 goals per game this season and 73% of games seeing at least three goals scored. However, historical data since VAR’s introduction in other competitions suggests a trend towards fewer goals in games where it is used, with eight out of twelve semi-final first legs having fewer than three goals since the 2018-2019 season.
Specifically, Newcastle has seen a net positive effect from VAR decisions this season, which could give them an edge in their match against Arsenal, who have had a mixed experience with VAR. Arsenal’s 41 offside calls this season could come into play, potentially leading to crucial goals being disallowed.
Liverpool, known for their assertive play and high penalty count, could benefit from VAR in rectifying missed foul calls in the box against Tottenham. Tottenham’s own VAR history this season shows a slight advantage, but facing Liverpool will be a real test of their ability to capitalise on these moments.
The introduction of VAR is expected to lead to adjustments in betting strategies. Bettors might lean towards fewer goals in the Arsenal-Newcastle match due to potential offsides being caught by VAR. Conversely, Liverpool’s knack for earning penalties could make placing bets on penalty specialists like Mohammed Salah or Alexis Mac Allister attractive options in the goalscorer markets.
Overall, the deployment of VAR in the EFL Cup semi-finals is poised to not only affect the outcomes of matches but also shift the betting landscape, reflecting each team’s historical relationship with this technology.
